The influence of Galactic aberration on precession parameters determined from VLBI observations

The influence of proper motions of sources due to Galactic aberration on precession models based on VLBI data is determined. Comparisons of the linear trends in the coordinates of the celestial pole obtained with and without taking into account Galactic aberration indicate that this effect can reach 20 $\mu$as per century, which is important for modern precession models. It is also shown that correcting for Galactic aberration influences the derived parameters of low-frequency nutation terms. It is therefore necessary to correct for Galactic aberration in the reduction of modern astrometric observations

Analysis of the Accuracy of Prediction of the Celestial Pole Motion

VLBI observations carried out by global networks provide the most accurate values of the precession-nutation angles determining the position of the celestial pole; as a rule, these results become available two to four weeks after the observations. Therefore, numerous applications, such as satellite navigation systems, operational determination of Universal Time, and space navigation, use predictions of the coordinates of the celestial pole. In connection with this, the accuracy of predictions of the precession- nutation angles based on observational data obtained over the last three years is analyzed for the first time, using three empiric nutation models---namely, those developed at the US Naval Observatory, the Paris Observatory, and the Pulkovo Observatory. This analysis shows that the last model has the best of accuracy in predicting the coordinates of the celestial pole. The rms error for a one-month prediction proposed by this model is below 100 microarcsecond.Comment: 13 p

Comparison of different estimates of the accuracy of forecasts of the Earth's rotation parameters

Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP) is one of the main problems of applied astrometry. In order to solve this problem, various approaches are used and in order to select the best one, comparison of the accuracy of the forecasts obtained by different methods at different analysis centers are often carried out. In such comparisons, various statistical estimates of the forecast errors are used, based on the analysis of the differences between the predicted and final ERP values. In this paper, we compare several prediction accuracy estimates, such as root mean square error, mean error, median error, and maximum error. It is shown that a direct relationship between the estimates of the forecast accuracy obtained by these methods does not always exist. Therefore, in order to obtain the most informative results of comparison of the accuracy of different forecast methods, it is recommended to use several estimates together in the studies dealing with comparison of the series of ERP forecasts, especially short-term ones

Space-Time Complexity in Hamiltonian Dynamics

New notions of the complexity function C(epsilon;t,s) and entropy function S(epsilon;t,s) are introduced to describe systems with nonzero or zero Lyapunov exponents or systems that exhibit strong intermittent behavior with ``flights'', trappings, weak mixing, etc. The important part of the new notions is the first appearance of epsilon-separation of initially close trajectories. The complexity function is similar to the propagator p(t0,x0;t,x) with a replacement of x by the natural lengths s of trajectories, and its introduction does not assume of the space-time independence in the process of evolution of the system. A special stress is done on the choice of variables and the replacement t by eta=ln(t), s by xi=ln(s) makes it possible to consider time-algebraic and space-algebraic complexity and some mixed cases. It is shown that for typical cases the entropy function S(epsilon;xi,eta) possesses invariants (alpha,beta) that describe the fractal dimensions of the space-time structures of trajectories. The invariants (alpha,beta) can be linked to the transport properties of the system, from one side, and to the Riemann invariants for simple waves, from the other side. This analog provides a new meaning for the transport exponent mu that can be considered as the speed of a Riemann wave in the log-phase space of the log-space-time variables. Some other applications of new notions are considered and numerical examples are presented.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figure